Bitcoin Nears Capitulation as Short-Term Holders Face Deep Losses

1 week ago 9

ARTICLE AD BOX

STH MVRV dropped to 0.82, signaling investor stress — while long-term holders quietly accumulate.

Apr 16, 2025, 10:33 a.m.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) on-chain metrics are flashing a key signal once again, as the short-term holder (STH) MVRV ratio fell to 0.82 — a level historically associated with market stress and capitulation, according to Glassnode data.

This metric compares the market value (current BTC price) to the realized price (average cost basis of coins held by short-term holders). A STH MVRV value below 1.0 indicates that recent buyers are, on average, underwater, holding unrealized losses. At 0.82, this means short-term holders are down roughly 18% on average, a sign that many are experiencing significant pain.

This level closely mirrors previous MVRV cycle lows: 0.84 in August 2024 and 0.77 in November 2022, both of which preceded market bottoms and trend reversals.

Historically, such deep MVRV drawdowns have marked periods where weak hands capitulate and smart money accumulates.

According to Glassnode data, since February, long-term holders (investors holding for 155 days or more) have increased their cohort supply by approximately 500,000 BTC.

In contrast, short-term holders have distributed over 300,000 BTC, driven by a mix of profit-taking and capitulation. This imbalance indicates that long-term holders are accumulating more BTC than short-term holders are selling.

Long/Short Term Holder Threshold (Glassnode)

James Van Straten

James Van Straten is a Senior Analyst at CoinDesk, specializing in Bitcoin and its interplay with the macroeconomic environment. Previously, James worked as a Research Analyst at Saidler & Co., a Swiss hedge fund, where he developed expertise in on-chain analytics. His work focuses on monitoring flows to analyze Bitcoin's role within the broader financial system. In addition to his professional endeavors, James serves as an advisor to Coinsilium, a UK publicly traded company, where he provides guidance on their Bitcoin treasury strategy. He also holds investments in Bitcoin, MicroStrategy (MSTR), and Semler Scientific (SMLR).