Bitcoin's True Capitulation Zone is $65K, Says Well-Followed Analyst

That level represents the average investor’s cost basis, said James Check.

Updated Apr 16, 2025, 2:48 p.m. Published Apr 16, 2025, 2:47 p.m.

Where's the bottom for bitcoin (BTC)?

While acknowledging it's possible that level has already been hit, on-chain analyst James Check suggested a true bottom may not be in place until after bitcoin suffers a true capitulation event.

That would likely require a decline to the $65,000 area, said Check, calling it the "true market mean," i.e., the average cost basis for active investors.

At that point according to Check, who spoke on the TFTC podcast, the average investor may begin to feel the pressure of unrealized losses. Even long-term holders, including those who have held bitcoin for five years, could find themselves underwater. Interestingly, this price level aligns closely with Michael Saylor’s Strategy, which has a similar cost basis of around $67,500.

Where does capitulation take the market?

While Check expects sizable declines from the $65,000 area, he sees strong support in the $49,000-$50,000 range, those prices representing the launch of the ETFs in 2024 as well as a $1 trillion market cap for bitcoin. A drop to as low as $40,000 seems unlikely, he said, barring a global recession.

Check also took note of the extended period of "chopsolidation" in 2024 — where bitcoin traded for months in a wide range between $50K and $70K — as establishing a strong foundation of support.

James Van Straten

James Van Straten is a Senior Analyst at CoinDesk, specializing in Bitcoin and its interplay with the macroeconomic environment. Previously, James worked as a Research Analyst at Saidler & Co., a Swiss hedge fund, where he developed expertise in on-chain analytics. His work focuses on monitoring flows to analyze Bitcoin's role within the broader financial system. In addition to his professional endeavors, James serves as an advisor to Coinsilium, a UK publicly traded company, where he provides guidance on their Bitcoin treasury strategy. He also holds investments in Bitcoin, MicroStrategy (MSTR), and Semler Scientific (SMLR).