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Standing outside a massive new avocado packing plant recently and with the U.S. ambassador in attendance, Guatemala President Bernardo Arévalo connected the high-demand fruit with rural development and said the facility signaled a new chapter in the trajectory of the cash crop.
But six months after the United States gave a green light to import avocados from Guatemala, the Central American country has yet to send any of the fruit north. Still, expectations are running high.
For decades, Mexico has been the main source of imported avocados to the U.S. along with small amounts from a few South American nations. Guatemala expects to similarly begin small, but hopes to seize on its proximity and experience exporting to Europe to rapidly expand and meet the increasing U.S. demand.
“Right now there are 17,300 acres (7,000 hectares) planted with the fruit, but in the next 10 years it could reach nearly 75,000 acres (30,000 hectares),” said Francis Bruderer, president of the Guatemala Avocado Producers Association.
When the U.S. announced the import permission last November, Guatemala’s agricultural ministry estimated that the country could initially send 1,700 tons to the U.S., but reach 15,000 tons by 2030. It's unclear how those expectations could be affected by a 10% tariff that U.S President Donald Trump announced this month on dozens of trade partners, including Guatemala.
Standing in his own avocado orchard with the fruit individually bagged on the trees to protect from pests, Bruderer said that more and more avocado trees are being planted each year and now trail only rubber and African palm trees in land coverage.
The new avocado packing facility, complete with its own heliport, sits at the end of a dirt road. When it opens in August it is expected to employ hundreds in Barberena about an 1 ½-hour drive south of the capital and surrounding areas.
It was built by California-based Mission Produce, one of the world’s largest avocado suppliers.
“Guatemala is an emerging power in the international avocado industry, and Mission Produce leads the region’s development for worldwide avocado production,” said Juan Rodolfo Wiesner, Mission Produce’s president for South and Central America.
The company’s executive director, Steve Barnard, said it was a “strategic investment” to reinforce the company’s position as a world leader in avocados.
At the dedication of the facility last week, Arévalo applauded the quality of Guatemala’s avocados and said their production already employed some 6,000 people.
“For us it is a concrete opportunity, it means promoting rural development and sustainable economic growth,” Arévalo said, noting the presence of the United States ambassador.
Still standing in the way is U.S. government approval for Guatemala’s avocado export protocols, Guatemala’s agriculture ministry said. Inspectors will have to ensure the avocados shipped to the U.S. are pest-free.
The other challenge could be the U.S. tariffs on imports.
As Guatemala tries to break into a U.S. market dominated by Mexico – 1.4 million tons exported annually — Mexico’s avocados do not currently face a tariff, putting Guatemala at a disadvantage.
“There’s a lot of caution and fear among economic actors, because things aren’t well-defined, they’re waiting for the government’s negotiation (with the U.S.),” said economist Ricardo Barrientos.
But Guatemala could have other advantages.
In recent years, the U.S. has temporarily suspended avocado imports from Mexico and inspections of the fruit in Michoacan state after inspectors received threats or were assaulted.
The profitable fruit long ago attracted the attention of Mexico’s powerful organized crime groups that extort avocado growers and packers. In September, the U.S. announced it would be passing inspection duties to the Mexican government.
Those security threats could happen in Guatemala too as the industry grows. The country will also have to monitor closely deforestation as forests are chopped down to plant avocado orchards and the water the trees require, both of which have become sensitive issues in Mexico.
Currently there are no regulations governing water use for avocado orchards, but the agriculture ministry says that “big companies use drip irrigation to optimize water resources.”
“To produce and export avocado good agricultural practices that contribute to good management of the fruit and the environment have to be implemented,” the ministry said.
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