Labour crisis as the city of John Prescott turns its back on Starmer

Keir Starmer could be facing an embarrassing blow in this week’s local elections after data seen by The Independent suggests that the city where Lord John Prescott was MP for 40 years has turned its back on Labour.

According to canvas returns - voting data collected by parties - Nigel Farage’s Reform UK are heading the race for mayor of Hull and East Yorkshire, with the Lib Dems a close second and Labour now a distant third.

The region, which is electing a mayor for the first time, has historically been a Labour heartland and part of its famous red wall, with Lord Prescott as an MP for four decades and former home secretary Alan Johnson also an MP for the city.

Currently, Home Office minister Diana Johnson is one of the local Labour MPs but voters for now seem to have switched off Labour.

Canvas returns from the Lib Dems taken from around 20,000 people in April put Reform’s Luke Campbell, a former Olympic gold medal-winning boxer, on 30 per cent, while the Lib Dem’s Mike Ross, leader of Hull City Council, is close behind on 27 per cent.

Labour’s Margaret Pinder is a long way back on 19 per cent, just ahead of Tory Anne Handley on 17 per cent.

Canvas returns are mostly collected through questioning people on the doorsteps but also through online surveys. They tend to be much more accurate than polling and are quite sophisticated in terms of method.

Even though the Liberal Democrats won overall control of Hull City Council in the 2022 local elections to end years of Labour rule, the result was seen as an anomaly with Sir Keir’s party at a low point. The mayoral contest had been expected to be a tight battle between Labour and Reform.

Issues such as welfare cuts, a lack of economic growth and removing winter fuel payments from pensioners have hurt Labour’s popularity in the polls and seen voters switch to Reform.

The Lib Dems, who had not previously seen Hull and East Yorkshire as a potential win, are now putting out leaflets and letters to voters in the region calling on Labour supporters to vote tactically for them to defeat Reform.

A Liberal Democrat source said: “What started as a contest between the Lib Dems and Labour, looks to be turning into a close race between the Lib Dems and Reform UK.

“It’s clear now that Labour aren’t the choice to stop Reform - as the campaign has gone and their support has drained away, they are now only fighting a small campaign on the ground and the latest bookies odds have them at 14/1.

“The crucial question in the final few days is - are there enough Labour and Green voters who will back Mike Ross and the Lib Dems tactically?”

But a Labour source dismissed the canvas returns, saying Cllr Ross has “presented nothing to excite voters”.

Reform has been heavily campaigning in the area, believing it is one of three mayoralties the party is set to win along with greater Lincolnshire with Dame Andrea Jenkyns and Doncaster.

Previously, Lib Dem breakthroughs have mostly been confined to strong Tory areas with many of the 72 seats they won in last year’s general election coming off the Conservatives. Victory in a red wall Labour area would be a significant breakthrough for the Lib Dems.

A Labour source said: "The Lib Dem candidate Mike Ross has failed to inject any personality into his campaign... In power the Lib Dems have failed to deliver for Hull, with Mike Ross presiding over a consultation council that does little to improve the day to day lives of people who live and work in Hull.

“Labour's Margaret Pinder is the only candidate who offers a clear alternative to Reform and a credible plan to deliver for both Hull and East Yorkshire.”