Space industry confronts twin disruptors: AI and geopolitics

TAMPA, Fla. — Space businesses are under pressure to adapt as artificial intelligence and shifting geopolitics reshape their industry in ways that are still coming into focus, panelists said during an April 10 session at the Space Symposium.

Todd Probert, president of U.S. government business for Earth observation operator HawkEye 360, said improved AI tools are urgently needed to make sense of an increasingly hyper-instrumented world, driven in part by a surge in satellite deployments.

“Our ability to sense has outpaced our ability to make sense,” Probert said during the conference in Colorado Springs.

“I think there’s a lot of opportunity out there to pull all of the data that’s coming from space, coming from terrestrial, coming from the internet or wherever it is — and pull it together in a different way to go solve problems.”

AI’s transformative role extends beyond data processing. Matt Magaña, president of defense and national security at space infrastructure provider Voyager Space, said increasingly powerful connectivity and AI tools are changing how the industry interacts with data, markets — and even talent.

“The way in which that we look at the world today, and what we do with the data is vastly going to change,” Magaña said.

“We don’t know what it’s going to be, and I think that’s the exciting part about it.”

Sensors originally intended for traditional Earth observation customers, for instance, are now being assessed by investors for their ability to detect moisture densities in soil to inform financial bets on the trading of avocados. 

Advances in AI, he added, are also catalyzing broader partnerships beyond the traditional space ecosystem, including pharmaceutical firms exploring ways to use advanced data and space-based environments to develop new drugs.

Rob Desborough, managing partner at early-stage investor Seraphim Space, said there is no vertical market that its portfolio of space investments does not touch today. 

“I think what’s going to ultimately drive the adoption of some of those markets is AI,” he said.

“AI is really what’s going to change the economics to access insight from the data we’re getting from space.”

Navigating a new geopolitical landscape

The biggest revenue drivers for Seraphim’s space investments today — which include HawkEye and Voyager — are global security and environmental sustainability.

About 80% of Seraphim’s portfolio companies also serve both government and commercial clients with so-called dual-use technology.

Amid heightened geopolitical tensions, from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to a far-reaching trade war and the U.S. reassessing its global security role, governments are ramping up defense budgets and rethinking their industrial strategies for space.

Europe, in particular, has pledged hundreds of billions of euros in new defense investments, with an emphasis on developing homegrown capabilities and reducing reliance on foreign suppliers.

Space companies have long looked to the United States as the industry’s primary customer and top source of venture capital, Desborough said.

“And then Europe came up with an additional 800 billion [euros] for defense investments,” he added. 

“So that is going to be interesting in terms of market dynamics — how that plays out, the expectation around where that capital gets deployed and the need for it to be deployed into European capability that stays within Europe. 

“I think there’ll be an interesting playbook for many startups to really consider how they can bridge both markets to ultimately bring outsized, outlier [venture capital] returns.”

Geopolitical considerations now permeate every corner of the space economy, from who funds a company to where its technology can be sold and used, said Joe Cassidy, U.K. head of technology, media and telecoms at financial adviser KPMG.

“You have to consciously look at who else is [investing] and where the source of funds are because that becomes a major consideration … certainly for our clients and the people that we work with,” he said.

Export controls, licensing and the ultimate end use of intellectual property (IP) are all strategic variables in the equation, particularly in a sector where increasing dual-use technologies blur civilian and military lines.

“There’s a clear set of guardrails, from the point of raising the capital to looking at your supply chain, to who you collaborate with, to where the IP can ultimately be used by and by whom and for what purpose,” Cassidy said.

Despite these constraints, Cassidy and other panelists said the market remains rich with opportunity for those who adapt with eyes wide open.